The Four Years of Mourning Is About to Begin (The Day We Thought Would Never Come)

The Four Years of Mourning Are About to Begin

(The Day We Thought Would Never Come)

INTRODUCTION

In the early days of March 2023, as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) made the announcement, the inevitable ensued: Bola Ahmed Tinubu was declared the winner of the 2023 presidential election, garnering a below-average vote tally of slightly over 8.7 million, the lowest since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999.

The aftermath of the election, however, witnessed a tussle of words from the opposite parties over what seemed like a legitimate flare of irregularities in the data from the polling units, IReV vs. INEC’s declared numbers. Accumulating these discrepancies, the opposition’s call for a rigged election was reinforced; they categorically reject the pronouncement injected by INEC. There were few scenes of jubilation, something very untypical of Nigeria. The legitimacy of the election was on trial in public opinion; in the hearts of the youths, especially from Southern Nigeria, there was no doubt that this election was rigged.

Tinubu, a former chairman of the ruling APC, the chief architect of its creation, and the man whom many believe calls the shots, was the most disliked character among the Southern youths. He further deteriorated his likeability amongst Southerners, who are predominantly Christians, by choosing a Muslim running mate, thus transgressing Nigeria’s de facto policy of Christian-Muslim leadership in the way of president and vice president. Many in the South believed that this ticket reinforced the perceived presumption of the “Islamization” of Nigeria. It also invoked already-heightened religious loggerheads, a detriment that has polarised the country.

This article will delve into the various reasons why Nigerians are hesitant about the prospect of a Tinubu Presidency and how the alleged four years of mourning hold great significance for Nigeria as a whole.

APC’s Political Legacy

While he claims to have successfully fulfilled his campaign promises, the 53.4% of unemployed youths, 60% of people living in multidimensional poverty, the Dollar to Naira parallel exchange rate of N750 to 1 (as of May 2023), and the outstanding public debt of over N46.25 trillion tell a different story.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) is one of the three major political parties in Nigeria, alongside the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP). Founded on February 6, 2013, through the merger of Nigeria’s three largest opposition parties: the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). APC came to power following the victory of the party’s candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, in 2015. The former military dictator became president after winning a momentous election that saw the defeat of the underperforming incumbent, Former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.

Buhari capitalised on the nation’s grim economic outlook and came into power with promises of tackling what he claimed were Nigeria’s core problems: insecurity, Corruption, and Economic Dependency. Whilst he claims to have successfully fulfilled his campaign promises, the 53.4% of unemployed youths, 60% of people living in multidimensional poverty, the Dollar to Naira parallel exchange rate of N750 to 1 (as of May 2023), and the outstanding public debt of over N46.25 trillion tell a different story. These harsh realities have contributed to the diminished trust and confidence Nigerians had in the ruling party, the APC, pre-2015.

Clearly, APC’s scoreboard is extremely low, and Tinubu’s administration will need to work extra hard to overcome these challenges if they are to regain the trust of the Nigerian people. This will depend on APC’s ability to effectively address the nation’s pressing issues.

ELECTORAL IRREGULARITIES

Various observers, including the ECOWAS mission led by former President Ernest Bai Koroma of Sierra Leone, have reported logistical and procedural deficiencies. These concerns include the delayed uploading of election results from polling units, instances of corrupt practises such as voter suppression and the theft of BVAS devices and ballot boxes, as well as non-compliance with Nigeria’s electoral regulations.

To strengthen transparency in the electoral process, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Yakubu Mahmood, proposed the implementation of two technological solutions: the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Results Viewing Portal (IReV). The BVAS device, utilising advanced fingerprint and facial recognition technology, was designed to identify and accredit voters, while the IReV portal aimed to provide the public with immediate access to polling unit results on election day. Regrettably, instead of streamlining the electoral process as stipulated, the technology failed woefully; mismatched results from the polling units to the IReV and INEC’s final count yielded discrepancies that cast reasonable doubts on the credibility of the 2023 elections.

Various observers, including the ECOWAS mission led by former President Ernest Bai Koroma of Sierra Leone, have reported logistical and procedural deficiencies. These concerns include the delayed uploading of election results from polling units, instances of corrupt practises such as voter suppression and the theft of BVAS devices and ballot boxes, as well as non-compliance with Nigeria’s electoral regulations.

Despite concerns that were made available to Mr. Mahmood by party agents that a significant 25% of polling unit results were yet to be uploaded on the IReV Portal, Prof. Mahmood went ahead with the collation process, ignoring INEC’s own rules. In response, some party agents quietly protested by leaving the national collation centre after their motion to stall the collation process until all polling units’ results were uploaded on IReV was dismissed. Mahmood went ahead to declare a winner.

In response to the disputed results, the main opposition parties, PDP and LP, filed lawsuits challenging the outcome. In another twist, INEC, supposedly an independent body, denied the opposition parties access to documents and records, spewing even more doubt into the already growing controversy.

THE MUSLIM-MUSLIM TICKET

Tinubu’s decision to choose Shettima, a fellow Muslim, as a running mate, ignoring the tradition of inter-religious duos, sparked intense scrutiny and criticism.

The selection of a running mate in political campaigns often carries significant weight and symbolism. Nigeria is known for its religious sensitivity and has a history of deadly religious clashes. Thus, the choice of a running mate from the same religious background raised eyebrows and fuelled speculations of a hidden agenda. Tinubu’s decision to choose Shettima, a fellow Muslim, as a running mate, ignoring the tradition of inter-religious duos, sparked intense scrutiny and criticism. Some viewed the decision as a deliberate attempt to allegedly Islamize Nigeria, a concern that intensified given the backdrop of repeated attacks on churches throughout the country. The perception of favouring one religious group over another further strained interfaith relations and ignited heated debates.

Adding to the controversy was Shettima’s alleged association with the terrorist group Boko Haram, a significant issue during the regime of former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and one that the opposition, led by Buhari, capitalised on during his campaign to oust Jonathan in 2015. Boko Haram had unleashed terror across the nation, resulting in widespread devastation and the loss of lives. Shettima’s alleged connection to the extremist group raised doubts and deepened concerns about his suitability as a running mate. It further compounded the suspicions surrounding Tinubu’s decision, with critics questioning the wisdom of aligning with an individual who had implication bordering a notorious terrorist group.

Furthermore, Shettima had been accused by some Nigerians of displaying ethnic bigotry. Allegations surfaced suggesting that he had made derogatory comments about other ethnic groups in Nigeria, fostering divisiveness and straining interethnic relations. The alleged remarks tainted Shettima’s reputation and intensified the criticism surrounding his selection as a running mate.

Reviewing Tinubu’s MANDATE

Given Tinubu’s past role as the founding member of the APC and a former national chairman of the party, it seems presumptuous to expect a fix from someone who was either implicitly or explicitly party to the current mess Nigeria finds itself in.

Another reason why Nigerians are hesitant about the prospect of Tinubu’s victory is their lack of trust in his credibility. His date of birth, primary educational records, and history of trouble with the law in the United States all brought his good character into disrepute. During his campaign speeches, he made remarks suggesting that he should be president because it was “Emi Lok An”, a transliteration of Yoruba meaning “my turn”. The statement became a sensation among Nigerians, generating buzz for months on social media and other mainstream news outlets. The arrogance displayed in that statement maimed his campaign.

However, in his published political manifesto, Tinubu highlighted his priorities, which included national security, strengthening the economy, adequate electricity supply, education, and job creation for youths. On the surface, these priorities sound promising and necessary for the betterment of the country. However, many Nigerians have expressed scepticism because they find similarities between Tinubu’s promises and the campaign pledges made by President Buhari in 2015. Unfortunately, Buhari’s attempts to fulfil those promises resulted in Nigerians experiencing even more difficulties and challenges. Given Tinubu’s past role as the founding member of the APC and a former national chairman of the party, it seems presumptuous to expect a fix from someone who was either implicitly or explicitly party to the current mess Nigeria finds itself in. That said, it is not a surprise that Nigerians have almost zero trust and confidence in his ability to bring about meaningful change.

Consequently, the lack of trust in Tinubu’s credibility has left many Nigerians feeling apprehensive about his candidature and sceptical about whether he can truly deliver on his promises. It remains to be seen how Tinubu will address these concerns and convince the populace that he is genuinely committed to making positive and impactful changes for the nation.

POST INAUGURATION-ERA

It is equally noteworthy to point out that the opposition party, LP, presented a candidate of Igbo descent whose charisma won the hearts of the Igbo people and seemingly the youth of the greater Southern and middle Nigeria. The lack of support he received from the Northeast and Northwest further reinforced the cry of marginalisation and claims of underrepresentation of the Igbo people.

Nigerians are filled with great anticipation as they eagerly await the initial strides of President Tinubu, the newly elected president. However, what happens in the first 100 days will determine his sincerity, leadership style, willingness to tackle Nigeria’s problems directly, and ability to juggle between the juggernauts of Nigeria’s political oligarchy.

It is fair to posit that the Muslim-Muslim ticket will hurt Tinubu’s regime; religious insensitivity is not an area Nigerians easily forgive or forget. As Nigerians await to see his cabinet appointments, were he to repeat the Muslim-Muslim concept, this would be the first step to President Tinubu’s downfall. Religion is the umbrella that shells Nigerians; this is not open for negotiation, at least not in the foreseeable future. A successful administration is contingent on a religiously diverse cabinet.

Another legitimate concern is how Tinubu plans to address the accusations of marginalisation in the Southeast geopolitical zone, where the Igbo ethnic group is concentrated. Recall that less than 3% voted for Tinubu in the Southeast; will this reflect representation in his administration? His predecessor, Former President Muhammadu Buhari, emphasised in 2015 that those who voted 5% in his favour could not get more than those who did 95%; will Tinubu echo the same sentiment? Rest to be seen. It is equally noteworthy to point out that the opposition party, LP, presented a candidate of Igbo descent whose charisma won the hearts of the Igbo people and seemingly the youth of the greater Southern and middle Nigeria. The lack of support he received from the Northeast and Northwest further reinforced the cry of marginalisation and claims of underrepresentation of the Igbo people. As curiosity pervades the masses, D-Day is ever closer, and ensuring a fair representation of Nigeria is in Tinubu’s interest.

Another worry is the potential impact on the judicial system and human rights. Open threats from Tinubu’s strong supporters against opposition parties have sparked doubts about the independence of the judiciary and the protection of freedom of speech. Recent warnings and aggressive language from pro-Tinubu groups have further intensified these concerns.

While we await his strategies for addressing the multifaceted challenges facing the economy, issues such as unemployment, poverty, and sustainable development are some of the underlying crippling overloads holding Nigeria down. To his supporters, there is hope that Tinubu can learn from past mistakes and strive for better. He had, after all, during his inauguration ceremony sworn to “place Nigeria’s interest above his personal interest”. It is pertinent to give him the chance to prove himself as a proactive president who can tackle the nation’s issues, something woefully lacking in his predecessor. Time will tell how and if Tinubu can rise above these concerns and lead Nigeria towards a brighter future.

Writers: – Chidimma Onwuokwu and  Ikechukwu Orji –