It was Friday, 13th day of January 2023, a message was received at the office, “We’ve been held by the Yobe state university security, and they’ve called DSS to pick us up”, followed by another message, “Our cameras and phones have been confiscated, we are on our way to the DSS office”. As Nigeria’s only dedicated face-to-face pollsters, we go to places paid the least attention, places unknown to most Nigerians let alone cameras and microphones pointed directly to your face asking personal questions. Most media, in their wildest dreams, would not dare go to the places BantuPage visited – it takes mettle, tenacity, passion for your work, and the belief in the free flow of information to risk your life going to these places.

During our December 2022 poll in Gombe, our driver had explosives in the boots, our crew had no idea. It was during a routine stop that this was spotted by the police, we thought the worst had happened – our team was taken deep into the hinterlands remote area deep into the night. Back in the office, we stood still, disordered, befuddled, and overwhelmed with jitter. After almost six hours, it was ascertained that our team were unaware of the explosives in the boot, and the driver had been randomly picked for a job.

From the Adamawa plateau that runs through Cameroon into Taraba and Adamawa state to the edge of Lake Chad in Borno state, the Savanna of Jigawa that stretches through most of the Northwestern and Northeastern Nigeria covering Adamawa, Gombe, Bauchi, Jigawa, Yobe, Borno, Kano, northern Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto and Kebbi, we criss-crossed these states trying to reach Nigerians who are not normally approached by the media. We pride ourselves as those who are determined to feed Nigerians information about the voting intention of the populace in ways that has never been done before.

Three days before the Yobe DSS incident, in Maiduguri, Borno state, our team was ambushed by the police. Their equipment was confiscated, and they were taken to Maiduguri Metro Police station. Our team was held up for hours, interrogated, intimidated but not defeated. Nigerians are not used to journalists with microphones asking them questions like: who are you voting for and why? We have for decades voted along ethnic or religious lines, so ‘they why question’ seems to offend rural respondents, whilst urban respondents simply brush them off.

Our team has been to every state in Nigeria except Zamfara for obvious reasons. We have been to some states twice. We go to urban, remote, and rural areas, whilst criss-crossing the country, we occasionally stop at villages across the Federal Republic of Nigeria and ask locals questions about the elections. In most cases, respondents voting intentions align with that of their ethnicity or religion.

In our December 2022 poll, we covered three states from each geopolitical zone. In our January 2023 poll, we covered the remainder, and as alluded earlier, we covered some states twice. Delta, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Ondo, FCT Abuja, and Cross River were all covered in both our December 2022 and January 2023 polling sessions. There was strong response for LP’s Peter Obi in the Southeast, South-South, Benue, and Plateau. In the Southwest excluding Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC took control, whilst in the Northeast, Atiku Abubakar of PDP swept through Adamawa, Gombe, and Taraba states.

In December 2022 we polled the following states: Abuja, Adamawa, Anambra, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ondo, Oyo, Plateau, and Taraba. Whilst in January 2023, we polled the following states: FCT (Abuja), Abia, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Ogun, Osun, Sokoto, and Yobe.

In these states, we went through several Local Government Areas to give us a closer representation of the states. Our data are peer reviewed to minimise inadvertent human oversight. We have recordings for 98% of all of the respondents with 2% of voice recordings belonging to those who did not wish to appear on camera. Our team was tracked throughout their polling session to make sure that the respondents were spread across the state.

In the Northwest (states polled: Sokoto, Kebbi, and Jigawa), PDP came strong against APC with 35% against APC’ 30%, Undecided tallied up 20%, more respondents than NNPP and LP combined. NNPP scored just 5% whilst LP just 2% with Not Voting and Undisclosed scoring 4 and 3% respectively. The Obidient wave in the South is put to sleep in the Northwest; the people we polled in the Northwest barely echoed the LPs presidential candidate Peter Obi.


In the Northeast, the similitude in the respondents with Nigeria’s duopoly of APC and PDP reflected the Northwest, LP is not considered in this part of the country. PDP once again, came ahead of APC with 41% versus APC 38%, Undecided hit 9%, NNPP at 5% whilst LP sits perfectly at the bottom of the top four with 3%. Did the Shettima effect only work for Borno? In Bauchi, PDP came first at 45% to APC’ 34%, in Yobe, PDP again surged ahead with 48% to APC’ 30%, it can be fair to say that Kashim Shettima have not given APC the nudge it had hoped for, so has the Muslim-Muslim ticket failed?



In the North-central, LP’s Peter Obi proved strongest. Peter Obi’s numbers in Benue and southern Kogi gave him the numbers he needed. Kwara state, however, went overwhelmingly for APC’ Bola Ahmed Tinubu. With 28% for LP, 21% for APC, 17% for Undisclosed, 16% for PDP, 12% Undecided, 5% for Not Voting, and NNPP garnering just 1%. LP is showing strength like none expected. The Obidient movement is slowly becoming Nigeria’s greatest grassroot consensus of young people wanting to take back control of their country.


“You cannot stop an idea whose time has come” Peter Obi. I guess this is beginning to feel at home. In the South-South, LP sweeps the floor; has LP’s time come? The momentum has not decelerated, Obidients are marching on with their message which has resonated with Nigerians, our poll show.

With 47% for LP, second place did not go to PDP or APC, but to Undisclosed at 13%, APC at 12%, almost four times less than LP. PDP was even further below at 8%, there is no better word to describe what Peter Obi has brought to the table than outstanding. The Labour Party has given young people reason to believe in Nigeria again.

In the Southeast, the fate of APC, PDP, and NNPP was even gloomier, very little to show for – it was an utter demolition. Obi has come to stay in Nigerian politics. With 83%, it is a landslide of epic proportion coming from a third force, unheard of in contemporary Nigerian history. PDP and APC took home just 2% and 1% respectively, this is beyond words – Peter Obi is a man on a mission, that much you can grant.

The reality in the Southwest was always going to swing APC’ Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s way, however, he (Bola Tinubu), is not dismissing Peter Obi in the Southwest as Peter Obi dismisses him in the Southeast and South-South. It is important to draw inference from other areas of our polls touching on “Reason for Voting”. Peter Gregory Obi smashes the “Trust & Capacity” category even in the Southwest. It is imperative that we look at what is at stake in our country. Only in Nigeria, where the ruling party that has driven the country to the brink of collapse will produce a candidate whose campaign is promising to continue on the same trajectory, and not falter at the polls. APC has failed Nigeria no matter what indices is used and skewed left or right, this government should not be tolerated, instead the presidential candidate of APC is garnering huge support – this should leave any reasonable interlocutor in a state of nonplus.

In the Southwest, APC took home 30%, Undecided 23%, LP 15%, Undisclosed 12%, then PDP at 11% followed by Not Voting at 9%. NNPP was relegated off the ballot.


The bulk of the Southwest numbers are in Lagos and Oyo, Labour should focus on reaching out to the overwhelming young population of these states, they are the ones if Labour were to be victorious, their participation should be inviolable and invulnerable. For PDP, it needs to go back to its stronghold of the South-South and the Southeast. A couple or even three states under the 25% rule from these zones will leapfrog them a step closer to Aso Rock, but if our poll is reflected come February 25th, PDP has no road leading to Aso Rock without a few South-South or Southeast states.

APC on the other hand has a make-possible pathway to Aso Rock. Akwa Ibom and Edo states 17% and 15% respectively with 13% of Undecided and Undisclosed each in Akwa Ibom with 21% Not Voting, this sets forth room for reaching out to these voters. In Edo state, Undisclosed is at 19%, APC should do more to make 25% in either state (Akwa Ibom and Edo), this will leap APC ahead based on the 25% rule.


In Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), the outcome for Labour was even brighter, Labour won across all ethnicities in the FCT, it would seem, the more urban and multi-ethnic the metro area, the Obidient friendlier they are. If a foreigner was reading the below chart, they would think that LP is the dominant party in the land, bearing in mind that this is the seat of the government; Nigeria’s very own beacon, yet the Labour Party is almost threefold ahead of the ruling party – just remarkable. LP sits at 40%, followed by APC 16%, Undecided at 13%, Not Voting and Undisclosed at 10% each, PDP scored just 9% whilst NNPP rest at 2%.


To conclude, we present our general poll for all Nigeria, Peter Gregory Obi of Labour Party, Papa, Mama, Pikin, storms the bloc and sprints ahead with 26%, closely followed by APC at 23%, PDP with 19%, Undecided at 14%, Undisclosed 9%, Not Voting at 7% and finally, NNPP at 2%. Our polls are the most extensive in Nigeria, we went to all states except Zamfara for safety reasons. In two months, we criss-crossed Nigeria like a commuter going to and back from work; we cherish every moment of this, and we are delighted to dare any media, corporation, organisation, government to dispute our numbers. We can back this with video evidence, map tracker, and data – you cannot make this up. At BantuPage, we are made of all the various Nigerian major ethnicities, we are good people with so much love for Nigeria.

Most importantly, we are not sponsored by APC, PDP, LP, NNPP, or any organisation, news outlet, but by our founders. It is in the interest of Nigeria that we put up a team to create a different kind of Nigerian media company which is run by normal, everyday people without vested interest but the need for a sincere level playing field so as to touch on areas where the major players have abandoned for fear of hurting their cronies and friends at the top.


By Ikechukwu Orji, Abuja

16 thoughts on “Peter Gregory Obi of Labour Party Storms the Bloc into Pole Position Poll Show; Yet Again!

  1. All Obi needs in the Northwest and Northeast is 25% and it seems he has it.
    I’m happy the other political parties do it enjoy the strong base LP has in the South.

      1. Your poll could not have gone to the future to capture Peter Obi’s recent activities over the past 2 weeks, and the effect it would have leading to the election.

        Notwithstanding, this is good work – well appreciated.

        May God bless you guys and continually keep you safe

      2. Can Obi win this election with his very very low performance in the north east and west? I think it is an impossible task without these states. So he needs to work hard there.

        1. He can win with the low performance in the core North. He has the popular vote, he’s leading according to the polls. If Obi doesn’t get 25% in 24 states then nobody will get it. In the SS and SE no PDP and APC cannot boast of 25% there. The only zone everyone will likely get 25% will be NC. That’s why it’s the battleground. If you check SE(5 states), SS(6 states), (SW 6 States) and NC(7 States), you’ll see it’s already 24 states. So he most likely has 24 states in the bag. Then we know Taraba will likely give Obi over 25%, Gombe and Kaduna will also come through. Bantupage can confirm this. Obi has won this election already and not just Bantupage knows this, PDAPC know this too. Let’s just go out and vote.

  2. But do you consider the numbers of registered voters in each state before concluding that Peter Obi has an edge as Baba Obasanjo also said because for instance, eligible voters in Kano and Kaduna are more than all entire voters in SouthEast.

    1. There are 5,927,565 registered voters (PVC holders) in Kano, whilst the Southeast has 11,041,461 PVC holders (registered voters). Whether 10 billion or 1 million, outcome doesn’t change; every person polled was a bearer of PVC thus registered voter.

      1. How come Obi didn’t get much vote at Akwaibom this is so surprising if Obi could pull much votes at the other south south states why was Akwaibom less..Obi wife is from that state too…please I also want to confirm is this present poll just for the state covered in January or a combination of poll percentage for January and December

      2. I guess he wants to know if you are multiplying the percentage with total number of registered voters. E.g 10 percent in the NW could equal a 68 percent in the South east since they have less registered votes. I think you must have done this but just clarifying for the responder

        1. BantuPage should be releasing the raw data state by state so that statistical analysis experts can do these sort of projections.

          Because if this type of “weighting” isn’t done then the final result they have produced isn’t painting an accurate picture at all.

          23 days to the election and you can’t find their polls for most of states anywhere

  3. Obi has work to do in the NE/NW. Nevertheless I still think he should concentrate on where he’s strongest. That’s SS/SE/NC. Consolidating those areas is important. I know he’s looking for 25% in 24 states. But if he does well in these 3 zones plus SW which is expected and hits 24% in all the southern states and the north central he’ll have won the election. Of course we’ll be expecting 25% in kaduna, Gombe and Taraba.

    1. I agree to that too…am surprise on how Akwaibom in SS voted..why do Akwaibom not give Obi massive votes compared to other SS states..Obi wife is from their, we need to grow our grassroots over their too, SE voted Jonathan their kinsmen with nearly 75% victory both in 2011 and 2015…why will Akwaibom a neighboring state to Bayelsa (Jonathan state) do Obi dirty like this.. even as APC are presenting Muslim Muslim ticket and bad leadership

  4. 2019 voter turnout by region will be the decider.
    Northwest = 42%
    North East = 49%
    South West = 32%
    South East = 27%
    South West = 21%
    North Central = 35%
    The wining formula is first the highest vote, then 25% of votes cast in 24 states. With this can you rate your candidates.


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