It would have been an outlier were Bola Ahmed Tinubu to lose the South-west, Nigeria isn’t there yet. Ethnicity strikes at the heart of our sentiment, to overcome this, we will need reorientation from our curriculum to federal policies and at least two decades of consistency for this to even make a dent.
Ethnicity is a social construct, thus making overcoming possible. In our just over two-decade brief democracy, there has not been an elected non-indigene governor. One country they say we are, but we are still identified by our state-of-origin, a concept that in my opinion undermines the spirit of one-Nigeria. As the campaign rolls out in full swing, none of the candidates have mentioned discontinuation of the state-of-origin that separates people of the same country. Why would a Nigerian born and bred in Enugu not be considered from Enugu state because their parents are from Benue state? If a Nigerian born and bred could contest and win elected office in the US, why has the same not happened here?
Our South-west polls presented an unexpected twist, APC’s Tinubu took the geopolitical zone, but Lagos, Nigeria’s unrivalled city state, is arguably, the single most important asset in Nigeria. Home to the Yoruba people, but has over the last century, been the country’s centre of finance, shipping, business, and port of entry hence the mixture in its ethnic residents. All Nigerian ethnicities live here, this diversity is what makes this city state an open battleground. Tinubu’s victory here will surprise none, but Obi’s will.
Polls for Lagos state
In Oyo state, Tinubu’s APC is almost three times ahead of Obi’s LP, and PDP has a 7-percentage point ahead of LP. The reality in Ondo state was technically different, Tinubu dropped 4 points down to 33%, this time LP is second with 25% whilst PDP dropped 10 points down from 18% in Oyo to 8% in Ondo. NNPP was totally irrelevant in Oyo and Ondo to even make up a percentage point.
What worries us with the South-west and across the country based on our polls is the amount of ‘Undecided’ and ‘Not Voting’ categories, they could sway the election. Every point Tinubu drops in the South-west could come back to hurt him because our polls are based on numbers, popular vote, but it is the 25% minimum of 24 states that will dictate who replaces President Muhammadu Buhari come 2023.
South-west by Gender
More women make up the ‘Undecided’ and ‘Not Voting’ categories respectively, are women in the South-west disillusioned with the candidates? Why is there voter apathy amongst women? On the other hand, APC has slightly more male voters than female, LP not so behind on male respondents but one thing is certain, APC has the numbers in the South-west for male and female respondents.
South-west by Marital Status
LP has the lead of single respondents in the South-west with 39% of singles going with LP, 16% for APC, 6% PDP and 1% for NNPP. Of married respondents, APC scored highest with 36%, LP 19%, PDP 11% and NNPP with yet again, 1%.
The platforms seem competitive between APC and LP, PDP based on our polls in the South-west seems to be struggling, however, in our January polls which will cover Osun, Ogun and Ekiti, hopefully will bring out what was missing for PDP in Lagos, Oyo and Ondo states respectively.
South-west by Religion
APC is winning the Muslim votes in the South-west with 50%, followed by PDP at a distant 12%, LP scored just 4% whilst NNPP settled for 1%. On the Christian side of things, LP dominated with 35%, APC took just 20%, and PDP dropping down 3 points to 9%, NNPP got 0%. Did the Muslim-Muslim ticket hurt APC, we will see in our January polls.
South-west by Employment
This category presented a spin, the unemployed in their numbers, 83% said they were not voting, either they are fed up with the system, or are in complete voter apathy mood, all the same, this needs not swept under the carpet, the numbers are just too high.
Another spin is the level of students voting for LP, APC virtually has 10% voting for them. Why is APC not appealing to students? They are the future, why are they staying away from Bola Tinubu and choosing the Igbo candidate, Peter Obi?
On students, LP clocks 50%, APC 10%, PDP and NNPP at 0%. Employed, APC 41%, LP 24%, PDP 7% and NNPP 0%. APC has a strong appeal on the employed, a very good sign for the party.
South-west by Ethnicity
Igbos overwhelmingly voted for LP, was this loyalty to their ethnic candidate, or are they basing their votes on ‘Capacity & Trust’? Yorubas on the other hand also voted for APC with 45%, Igbos at 70% with Hausa clocking 12% for PDP and NNPP each.
Yoruba respondents who chose LP stood at 8%, but Igbo respondents who chose APC and PDP stood at 3% each.
South-west by Educational Background
Primary school level respondents were most likely not voting, the less educated, the more likely they are not to vote. Of secondary level respondents, LP Scored highest with 34%, APC 16%, PDP 9% and NNPP 2%. The more educated the respondent, the more they swing LP’s way with tertiary educated respondents hitting 32% for LP, APC 20%, PDP and NNPP scored 4%.
An important point not to miss, LP scored 0% on the uneducated, echoing my sentiment above, the educated base is LP’s stronghold. APC and NNPP both tied at 20% on the uneducated, whilst PDP and LP take 0% home.
South-west by Age
It is no surprise that young people are throwing their weights behind the LP presidential candidate, we have seen throughout the million march and most of all, they are the social media warriors clamouring all over for Peter Obi. Our poll in the South-west showed just that, 39% of Gen Z respondents went for LP, 9% for APC, 6% PDP and 2% for NNPP. On millennial though, Bola Tinubu of APC edged out Peter Obi of LP by 4 points, APC 29%, LP 25%, PDP 10% whilst NNPP sat at 6%.
Another interesting point is how Bola Tinubu demolishes Peter Obi on the Baby Boomer category with 44% to LP’s 16%, PDP 8% and NNPP 0%.
South-west by Inclination
Gen Z: born 1997 – 2012
Millennial: born 1981 – 1996
Gen X: born 1965 – 1980
Baby Boomer: born 1946 – 1964
APC’s respondents’ loyalty to the party paid off in the ‘Party Affiliation’ subcategory. Respondents chose APC by 85% for ‘Party Affiliation’, not necessarily because of their candidate Bola Tinubu’s ability, LP scored 0% on ‘Party Affiliation’, PDP 8% and NNPP 0%.
Here comes the twist of all times, on ‘Capacity & Trust’ subcategory, APC’s Bola Tinubu scored 0% whilst LP hit 73%, PDP 27% and NNPP 0%. Drawing inference from these numbers, the writing on the wall starts clearing up, Bola Tinubu’s voting bloc are not necessarily giving him the nudge because they believe he is trustworthy or has the capacity, this is very telling.
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Stop painting Peter Obi as Igbo candidate. That is tribalistic of you. I know you support Tinubu and that is fine, but don’t paint Obi with bad brush.