No Pathway for Obi to Aso Rock

Like every country, electoral systems are designed to reflect the reality of the land, Nigeria’s is no different. The architects of our electoral system had our diversity in mind, were they perfect? I think perfect is for the dreamer, I’d much rather find out if they had good intentions, from all indicators, I think they did. Many aren’t aware that our general election is not a winner takes all, but a winner of 24 states, or a minimum of 25% of 24 over 36 states, however, it is likely that winning the majority comes with the other caveat on which victory is subject.

We at BantuPage have interrogated the data we received from our physical (face-to-face) poll across the six geopolitical regions, the findings are quite telling. We classified these on states electorates and the candidate’s likeability, winnability and probability. This showed a blockade to LP’s Peter Gregory Obi, NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso and PDP’s Atiku Abubakar pathway to Aso Rock, simply put, their chances look bleak. 

Elections in Nigeria are not won on social media, we have heard this statement so many times, but this could not be further from the truth. There are over 80 million internet users in Nigeria with a teeming youth population, an estimated 55 million social media users in Nigeria, ¾ of those are under 40. President Muhammadu Buhari’s last two victories were 15 million each, the number of social media users exceeds that, thus making social media the greatest advertising platform for any candidate.

In the 2015 presidential elections, registered voters were just under 67 million and turnout was just about 44%, i.e., of 67 million registered voters, only about 29 million turned up to vote. Of these, President Muhammadu Buhari garnered 15,424,921 whilst former President Goodluck Jonathan lumped just 12,853.162 votes. 

The cry in the South-east for secession and the dislike for President Muhammadu Buhari could have been avoided had these same people turned out to vote for former President Goodluck Jonathan who lost by less than 2.5 million votes. The entire South-east vote was 2,719,658, just about the same number Buhari led Jonathan, turnout amongst South easterners living across the federation was equally low.

If democracy is the government of the people, by the people and for the people, one can question the validity of winning just 15 million out of 67 million voters by PVC ( over 100 million over 18)  as inconsequential. The calls for the populace to turn out to vote is echoed all the time, if you don’t come out to vote, you will have another inconsequential representation of Nigeria. In other words, President Muhammadu Buhari won just 22% by PVC holder (13% by eligible voter) of Nigeria’s vote, yet he leads 100% of Nigeria, this is no democracy in my opinion, but to be fair, it is not President Muhammadu Buhari’s fault.

Moving on to the 2019 Presidential Elections, this time the registered voters tally was higher, 83,344,107 by PVC holders (over 100 over 18) but turnout dropped to just under 35%. This time however, his vote total dropped, he, President Muhammadu Buhari garnered just 15,191,847 votes, a drop of over 300,000 votes. His rival Atiku Abubakar performed slightly worse than former President Goodluck Jonathan, with 11,262,978 votes. The cycle continued, just under 30 million out of 83 million voted, and President Muhammadu Buhari took home again just 18% of Nigeria’s vote by PVC holders (13% by eligible voter), yet again another inconsequential representation.

Interestingly, President Muhammadu Buhari bettered his performance in the South-east, from 198,248 votes in 2015 when his popularity was high, despite Obi teaming up with PDP’s Atiku, Buhari doubled his numbers in the South-east to 403, 248 votes. In fact, he scored 25% or more in three South-eastern states, the first time in his career of running for the country’s top position. Is Peter Obi really a noisemaker, or are his supporters empty vessels? 

As of the time of posting this video, INEC has recorded 96.3 million PVC registration, an increase of over 12 million. Going back to Peter Obi being the social media President, let’s dissect this a little more, shall we?

We have seen a wave of young people taking part in Nigeria’s presidential election like never in our contemporary history, with the vast majority clamouring for Peter Obi, the Labour Presidential candidate. Bear in mind that Nigeria’s median age is 18.1 years with 52% urban population and a whopping 60% being under 35 years.  Only 2.7% of our population are over 65 years, let’s put this in numbers, shall we? 2.7% of 210 million gives you just 5,670,000 people. 

The overwhelming majority of these young people are on social media, and they made up the overwhelming discrepancies of those not turning up to vote, however, this time around, all indicators are pointing to a willingness to vote by young people, if this were translated to reality in the 2023 Elections, Peter Obi could do what none has ever in the history of Nigeria. Those reverberating the social media president mantra should better think twice, something is happening to Nigeria that may just take everyone off their seats. A new political character is being formed, adjust to this, or regret forever post February 2023.

Remember at the beginning I said Obi, Atiku and Kwankwaso’s chances to Aso rock looks bleak? Let’s dig into this, shall we? Our Polls conducted between late November and early December 2022 puts Obi ahead, but make no mistake, ahead in popular vote counts. In the North-west and North-east geopolitical zones, there are 13 states, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Kano, Kaduna, Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe, Borno, Adamawa, and Taraba. Except for Taraba, give or take Gombe, Obi was barely making up 5%, if you deduct 13 states from 36, you will have 23 states, by that number, Obi has already lost the election even if he were to win every state in the South regardless of the popular votes he amasses.

Further to the obliteration of Obi in the North-west and North-east, Obi’s performance in the South-west was equally, or thereabout trailing in the South-west except for Lagos, and maybe Oyo, our polls predict that Obi won’t make 10% in Ondo, Ogun, Osun and Ekiti. This further reduces Obi’s state tally, in the North-central, his chances in Plateau and Benue seem very promising, 25% in Nasarawa and Niger is very debatable, but Kwara and Kogi casts mix outcomes, however, by these alone, Obi cannot cross the line.

Obi, based on our polls will win all South-east and South-South states, that is 11 plus Plateau, Benue, 25% in Kogi, Nasarawa, Lagos, Ondo and just maybe Niger, that will leave him at just 16 states, far off Aso Rock than when he started.

Atiku’s dilemma is also bleak but better than Obi’s. Our polls predict less than 10% throughout the South-South and South-east for Atiku, that is already 11 states lost, in the South-west, Atiku could make 25% on 2 or 3 states, the same applies in the North-central. In the North-east and North-west, we predict a possible 25% on each of the 13 states, still, that brings him to 18 or 19 states, way short of the 24 required. 

Kwankwaso’s reality is the bleakest based on our polls. Kwankwaso could carry Kano, or guarantee his 25%, he will have some numbers in neighbouring Katsina and Sokoto, but that’s it for us, so his chances are next to none.

Tinubu is the master of all of these. We predict a Tinubu coming first, but short of overall majority. He will win all 6 South-western states in a landslide except Lagos. He will also make up his 25% in all North-western and North-eastern states except for Adamawa and/or Taraba, that’s already 17 states in his pocket, then in the North-central, he’s sweeping Niger, Kwara, Kogi and Nasarawa leaving him with 21 states. In the South-South and South-east, Tinubu, based on our polls won’t make 10 and 5% respectively, still, he will come first and PDP’s Atiku second. Obi and Kwankwaso will both be eliminated.

It is important to point out that this prediction is based on our polls, and reality on the ground, however, if young people were to turn up in their numbers as predicted, Niger, Kogi, Kwara, Ogun, Osun, Gombe, Taraba, Bauchi, and Kaduna (South) could help Obi cross the line, or at least, make it to the second round.

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