Breaking Down BantuPage’s December 2022 and January 2023 Poll

December 2022 by Geopolitical Zones and States: 

Northwest:

In the North-western zone, we covered the six out of seven states (Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Jigawa). Three states were covered in December 2022 and three in January 2023. The below chart shows you the three states (Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina) covered in December and their findings.

Northwest by state below (December 2022):

Northwest general poll below (December 2022):

In Kano, NNPP came first as seen on the chart above, but the ‘Undecided’ is the deciding group in this upcoming election, their numbers were extremely high, especially in Katsina. PDP is performing well in the Northwest; APC is the runner up.

Our December 2022 poll in the Northwest covered the following areas:

Kano (Fage, Kano Municipal, Gwari, Mungibe, Dala, Kruna, Dawano, Kankana, Sanyawa, Dankabr and Bichi).

Katsina (Katsina, Sohon Sacha, Batagarawa, Sabon Gari Alaji Yahuza, Batsari, Rimi, Abukuru and Quado)

Kaduna (Kawo, Mando, Rigasa, Tudun Wada, Central Market, Kaduna State University, Malale, Kakure, Banawa and Naraye)

Again, we made sure our numbers per area were limited and spread across the landscape of these cities/states so we can get a clearer representation. 12% of the Northwest’s respondents were Christians whilst 88% were Muslims.

12 ethnic groups were represented in NW polls.

There was overwhelming response from male in the Northwest, 93% respondents were male and just 7% were female. Another interesting factor here is on the respondent’s educational background, 43% secondary school, 29% tertiary, 9% tie for both primary and uneducated.

On age group, again, we split our respondents by Gen Z (1997-2012), Millennial (1981-1996), Gen X (1965-1980) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964), of these, 28% were Gen Z, 46% Millennial, 17% Gen X and 5% Baby Boomer.

71% are self-employed, 21% employed, 10% student, Unemployed stood at 2% and retired at 1%. Only 56% of respondents gave their reason for leaning toward their candidate, of those 83% said they their reason was based on capacity and trust, 10% for party affiliation, 5% for change, 2% ethnicity and %1 religion.

Northeast:

In the Northeast, our December 2022 poll covered the following states: Adamawa, Gombe, and Taraba. PDP again proved stronger. It would seem PDP is replacing APC as the dominant force in the North, our January 2023 poll maintained this pattern for PDP, see the below chart.

Northeast general Poll (December 2022):

 

When dissected by states, Atiku’s lead is even clearer. PDP’s obvious dominance in Adamawa can tantamount to a landslide, in Gombe, Atiku is equally loved, however, in Taraba, given its Christian population, this is where LP’s Peter Obi gained some numbers, and it is the only state in the Northeast, based on our poll that we believe LP could if hard work is put, make 25%.

Northeast state poll (December 2022):

In the Northeast, we covered the following areas:

Adamawa (Bature, Wurebajee,Boronji, Jimeta, Bakin Kogi, Wulere, Mayo belwa)

Taraba (Magwa, Machiri, Sabon Gari, Sabon Kasuwa, Bantinabu, Langabiri, Taraba State University, Aruta, Taraba State Polytechnic, Ardo Kola, Arbakula, Lau).

Gombe (Gombe)

Our numbers per area were limited and spread across the landscape of these communities/cities/states for an impactful representation. 32% of the Northeast’s respondents were Christians whilst 67% were Muslims and non-affiliation rounded the number at 1%.

25 ethnic groups were represented in the NE polls.

95% were male whilst 5% female, regarding age, 97% of our respondent disclosed their age and we split them by Gen Z (1997-2012), Millennial (1981-1996), Gen X (1965-1980) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964), of these, 34% were Gen Z, 45% Millennial, 19% Gen X and 3% Baby Boomer.

Again only 64% of our respondent disclosed their employment status and of which 66% are self-employed, 6% employed, 25% student and unemployed stood at 4%. Only 62% of respondents gave their reason for leaning toward their candidate, of those 72% said they their reason was based on capacity and trust, 12% Affiliation, 4% for change,11% ethnicity and 1% religion.

North-central:

In the Northcentral, we conducted our polls in three states, Plateau, Niger, and Nasarawa, LP proved strongest here. Plateau was piling behind Peter Obi of LP by sometimes 5 to 1, see the below charts.

Northcentral general poll (December 2022):

If this were put by states, the picture gets even clearer for LP, Plateau is not open for negotiation when it comes to Peter Obi. In Nasarawa, PDP and APC were competitive, see the below chart.

North-Central by state (December 2022):

In our December 2022 poll of the North-Central zone, we covered the following areas:

Jos (Jos North Terminal Bus Stop, Mai Adiko, Satellite Market, Kabong, Challang, Bassa, Zarazong, Kerker and Riyom).

Nasarawa (College of Education Akwanga, Dan Dabi, Angwan Lambu, Jigwada, Masaka, Ado and Mararaba)

Niger (Lambata, Suleja, Kwata, Abdulsalam Abubakar Garage, Tunga Market, Madalla, Bassa, Gwari Market, Bomas, Central Market, Kpakungu, Mandela Street)

Again, we made sure our numbers per area were limited and spread across the landscape of these communities/cities/states for an impactful representation. 61% of the North-Central’s respondents were Christians whilst 39% were Muslims.

There was overwhelming response from males in the North-Central region, 71% respondents were male and 29% were female. 53 different ethnic groups from across Nigeria were represented in this region.

Age Group: 92% of our respondents disclosed their ages. Out of these, 23% were Gen Z, 52% Millennial, 21% Gen X and 4% Baby Boomer.

87% of our respondents disclosed their employment status, out of these respondents, 9% were students, 56% self-employed, 2% unemployed, 32% employed and 1% retired.

Again, ethnicity and religion, had little impact on respondents voting intention. 66% of our respondents gave a reason they were voting for their preferred candidate. Out of these respondents Only 2% stated religion as their motivator, 2% for ethnicity, 5% for party affiliation, 16% for change, 7% for age, and a staggering 68% for capacity and trust.

Southwest:

APC’ Bola Ahmed Tinubu was always going to come first in this zone, however, something unexpected happened in Lagos, its largest state, LP’s Peter Gregory Obi narrowly edged Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC. See the below chart of the Southwest by state.

Southwest by state (December Poll):

When broken down by state, the chart above clears out LP’s lead in Lagos, a crucial state with very mixed ethnicity make-up. The chart below however, gives you an overall look on the geopolitical zone.

Southwest general poll (December 2022):

In our December 2022 Southwest poll, we covered the following areas:

Lagos (Oshodi, Mushin, Yaba, Costain, Ikorodu, Ojota, Ajah, Lekki, Itedu Market, CMS, Obalende and Badore)

Oyo (Akobo Ojurin, Gate Ibadan, Olodo Road, Challenge Ibadan, Dugbe, Molete)

Ondo (Oja Oshodi Akure, Post office Akure, Army Barracks Akure, Old Garage Akure)

Our numbers per area were limited and spread across the landscape of these communities/cities/states for an impactful representation. 61% of our respondents were Christians whilst 39% were Muslims.

There was overwhelming response from males in the South-West region, 76% respondents were male and 24% were female. 15 different ethnic groups from across Nigeria were represented in this region with 67% of respondents belonging to the Yoruba ethnicity.

Age Group:  11% were Gen Z, 47% Millennial, 36% Gen X and 6% Baby Boomer.

On respondent employment status,2% were students, 73% self-employed, 2% unemployed and 23% employed.

Nigeria’s two famous political influencers, ethnicity and religion had little impact on respondents voting intention. 59% of our respondents gave a reason they were voting for their preferred candidate. Out of these respondents none stated religion as their motivator, 21% for ethnicity, 5% for party affiliation, 6% for change, and a staggering 68% for capacity and trust.

Southeast:

LP has no competitor in the southeast, it was a landslide for the party, Southeasteners have overwhelmingly backed the LP’s presidential candidate. See the chart below.

Southeast general poll (December 2022):

Southeast by state (December 2022):

In our December 2022 Southeast poll, we covered the following areas:

Anambra (Nnewi North, Nnewi Bank Road, Ochanja Market, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka)

Imo (General Hospital Umuguma, Douglas Road Owerri Municipal, Hospital Junction, World Bank Owerri West, Umuguma Market)

Enugu (Gariki, Holy Ghost, Agbani North, Kenyatta, New Market)

Our numbers were evenly spread across these communities/cities/states for an impactful representation. 74% of our respondents disclosed their religions, of these, 88% were Christians whilst 12% were Muslims.

There was overwhelming response from males in the South-East region, 83% respondents were male and 17% were female. 20 different ethnic groups from across Nigeria were represented in this region with 81% of respondents belonging to the Igbo ethnicity.

Age Group: 31% were Gen Z, 43% Millennial, 20% Gen X and 6% Baby Boomer.

91% of our respondents disclosed their employment status, out of these, 7% were students, 62% self-employed, 2% unemployed, 28% employed and 1% retired.

What’s also interesting here is that ethnicity and religion, Nigeria’s two famous political influencers had little impact on respondents voting intention. 72% of our respondents gave a reason they were voting for their preferred candidate. Out of these respondents none stated religion as their motivator, 7% for ethnicity, 1% for party affiliation, 6% for change, 7% for age, and a staggering 79% for capacity and trust.

South-South:

LP continued its dominance in the Southeast to the South-South, even in Okowa’s state, LP’s Peter Obi proved stronger, see the below charts.

South-South general poll (December 2022):

South-South by state (December 2022):

In our December South-South poll, we covered the following areas:

Akwa-ibom (Itam, Itu, Ibiono, Mpat Enin, Etim Ekpo, Etinan).

Cross River (Calabar).

Delta (Ifa Jesus Market, Asaba Stephen Kechi Stadium, Dennis Osadebe University, General Hospital, Midwifery Market, Asaba Obilo, Ogbosue Community).

Rivers (Rumukurushi, Obio Akpor, Mile 1 Market, Rumuomasi, Borokiri Aba Road, Artillery).

Edo (Igo, University of Benin, Eweka, Benin city, Boka Awka, Iworde).

Our numbers per area were limited and spread across the landscape of these communities/cities/states for an impactful representation. 84% of the South-South respondents were Christians whilst 9% were Muslims and non-affiliation rounded the number at 8%.

There was overwhelming response from male in the South-South as was the patter throughout the zones we’ve covered, 84% respondents were male and just 16% were female. Another interesting factor here is on the respondent’s educational background which only 29% disclosed their level of education, 47% secondary school, 44% tertiary, 10% tie for both primary and uneducated.

Age Group: 92% of our respondent disclosed their age, of these, 22% were Gen Z, 50% Millennial, 25% Gen X and 3% Baby Boomer.

Again only 78% of our respondent disclosed their employment status of which 72% were self-employed, 19% employed, 7% student and unemployed stands at 2%. Only 79% of respondents gave their reason for leaning toward their candidate, of those 74% said they their reason was based on capacity and trust, 2% for party affiliation, 11% for change, 5% for age, 5% ethnicity and 2% religion.

Abuja FCT:

LP’s Peter Obi was again on a mission in the FCT sweeping across all respondents polled with a comfortable lead, see the charts below.

Abuja (FCT) general poll (December 2022):

January 2023 by Geopolitical Zones and States:

Northwest:

In the Northwest, we polled three more states, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Jigawa; PDP took two states whilst APC took one, see the below charts.

Northwest by state (January 2023):

Northwest general poll (January 2023):

In the Northwest, we covered the following areas:

Jigawa (Birin kudu, Buji, Kiyawa, Duste, Jahun and Tuara)

Kebbi (Gwandu, Bunza, Kalgo, Aleiro, Jega, Gamagriya, Birnin Kebbi, Badariya and Argungu)

Sokoto (Sohotacha Old Market, Sokoto North, Alhaji Shehu Shagari Market, Usman Danfodiyo University, Aliyu Flyover Sokoto South, Asibiti Budaji Sultan Abubakar Road, Bodinga, Uduth, Wamako, Danbwa Park, Gwadabawa, Umaru Ali Shinkafi Polytechnic, Umaru Ali Shinkafi Polytechnic, Kware, Yabo, Shagari)

As usual, we made sure our numbers per area were limited to 20 and spread across the landscape of the cities/states so we can get a clearer representation. Only 92% of our Northwest’s respondents revealed their religion of which 6% were Christians whilst 94% were Muslims.

92% were male whilst 8% female, regarding age, 92% of our respondent disclosed their age and we split them by Gen Z (1997-2012), Millennial (1981-1996), Gen X (1965-1980) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964), of these, 27% were Gen Z, 44% Millennial, 21% Gen X and 7% Baby Boomer.

Again only 68% of our respondent disclosed their employment status and of which 57% were into business, 34% employed, 7% student and Unemployed stands at 2%. Only 66% of respondents gave their reason for leaning toward their candidate, of those 87% said they their reason was based on capacity and trust, 9% party affiliation, 3% for change,1% ethnicity and 1% religion.

Northeast:

PDP stays competitive in both the Northwest and Northeast, see the chart below.

Northeast general poll (January 2023):

Northeast by state (January 2023):

In the Northeast, we covered the following areas:

Bauchi (Nabardo, Kangere, Alkalere, Kirfi, Bauchi LGA, Dass, Tafawa, Toro, Ganjiwa)

Maiduguri (Bama Road, Bulunkutu, Jakana, Benshek, Gandu, New Market, Babaline, Central Mosque, Fish Market, Bank Road)

Yobe (Damaturu, New Market, Dikumari, Tashin Tiper, Yobe state university, Maidugri road, Mesenderi)

We made sure our numbers per area were limited to 20 and spread across the landscape of the cities/states so we can get a clearer representation. 99% of our Northeast’s respondents disclosed their religion, of which 4% were Christians whilst 96% were Muslims.

Also 98% were male whilst 2% female, regarding age, 93% of our respondent disclosed their age and we split them by Gen Z (1997-2012), Millennial (1981-1996), Gen X (1965-1980) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964), of these, 32% were Gen Z, 45% Millennial, 19% Gen X and 5% Baby Boomer.

A resounding 88% of our respondent disclosed their employment status and of which 81% were into business, 10% employed and 9% were student. Only 78% of respondents gave their reason for leaning toward their candidate, of those 82% said they their reason was based on capacity and trust, 8% party affiliation, 7% for change, and 3% ethnicity.

North-central:

LP, PDP, and APC split the three states we covered, see the chart below.

Northcentral by state (January 2023):

Northcentral general poll (January 2023):

In our January 2023 Northcentral poll, we covered the following areas:

Kwara (Ilorin East, Baboko, Offa, Ijagbo, Ajase, Atonba Kwara)

Benue (Makurdi, Wurukum, Taraku Modern Market, Savanah, Otukpo, Ojano

Kwararafa, Ikpanomaje, Gboko)

Kogi (Lokoja, Falele, Koton Karfe, Adavi Okene, Kabba-bunu, Anyigba,

Ejule, Ofakaga)

Our numbers per area were limited to 20 and spread across the landscape of the cities/states so we can get a clearer representation. 90% of our Northcentral respondents disclosed their religion, of which 63% were Christians whilst 37% were Muslims.

Also 91% were male whilst 9% female, regarding age, 94% of our respondent disclosed their age and we split them by Gen Z (1997-2012), Millennial (1981-1996), Gen X (1965-1980) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964), of these, 14% were Gen Z, 52% Millennial, 27% Gen X and 7% Baby Boomer.

Only 60% of our respondent disclosed their employment status and of which 68% were into business, 21% employed, 8% were student and unemployed stood at 3%. Only 68% of respondents gave their reason for leaning toward their candidate, of those 74% said they their reason was based on capacity and trust, 5% party affiliation, 6% for change,10% ethnicity,2% religion and 2% said age.

Southwest:

In the southwest, APC came strongest as expected, but something happened in Osun, PDP overtakes APC with 21% versus APC 18% and a staggering 40% ‘Undecided’. 25% for either LP or PDP in any Southwestern states will be a win, see the below chart.

Southwest general poll (January 2023):

Southwest by state (January 2023):

In our January 2023 Southwest poll, we covered the following areas:

Ogun (Sagamu, Ikenne, Odogbolu, Ijebu Ode, Isiun, Owode, Kuto, Lafenwa Ita Oshin, Obada Ewekoro)

Osun (Moro Ife, Ife Central, Ife East, Ilesa East, Olurunda, Oshogbo west, Oshogbo South)

Ekiti (Ado, Oke yinmi Ado Ekiti, New Garage Ado Ekiti, Irona Ado Ekiti, Fayose Market Ado Ekiti, Fujuyi Ado Ekiti, Alade park Ado Ekiti.)

Ondo (Owo, Ikare, Okole,)

Again, we made sure our numbers per area were limited to 20 and spread across the landscape of the cities/states so we can get a clearer representation. 99% of our Southwest respondents disclosed their religion, of which 66% were Christians whilst 34% were Muslims.

Also 67% were male whilst 33% female, regarding age, 95% of our respondent disclosed their age and we split them by Gen Z (1997-2012), Millennial (1981-1996), Gen X (1965-1980) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964), of these, 4% were Gen Z, 54% Millennial, 32% Gen X and 10% Baby Boomer.

An overwhelming 98% of our respondent disclosed their employment status and of which 95% were into business, 3% employed and 2% were students. Only 55% of respondents gave their reason for leaning toward their candidate, of those 50% said they their reason was based on capacity and trust, 8% party affiliation, 5% for change,30% ethnicity while 7% said age.

Southeast:

In the Southeast, APC got its first 0% in Ebonyi state, Dave Umahi, the state governor, despite being an APC member, this failed to influence the people of Ebonyi state, see the chart below.

Southeast by state (January 2023):

Southeast general poll (January 2023):

In our January Southeast poll, we covered the following areas:

Abia and Ebonyi

Making sure our numbers per area were limited to 20 for a reflective representation, and spread across the landscape of the cities/states. 96% of the South-East respondents were Christians whilst 4% were Muslims.

85% were male whilst 15% female, regarding age, 99% of our respondent disclosed their age and we split them by Gen Z (1997-2012), Millennial (1981-1996), Gen X (1965-1980) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964), of these, 15% were Gen Z, 48% Millennial, 31% Gen X and 6% Baby Boomer.

Also, all our respondent disclosed their employment status and of which 82% were into business, 13% employed, 4% student and Unemployed stands at 1%. Only 86% of respondents gave their reason for leaning toward their candidate, of those 62% said they their reason was based on capacity and trust, 22% for change, 5% ethnicity and 11% said age.

South-South:

LP continues its dominance in the South-South with double digit, see the chart below.

South-South by state (January 2023):

South-South General Poll (January 2023):

In our January South-South poll, we covered the following areas:

Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo (Otaro, Auchi, Estako West, Eibe

Ekpoma, Emado, Esan West)

We limited our numbers to 20 and spread across the landscape of the cities/states so we can get a clearer representation. 99% of our South-South respondents disclosed their religion, of which 77% were Christians whilst 23% were Muslims.

Also 85% were male whilst 15% female, regarding age, 97% of our respondent disclosed their age and we split them by Gen Z (1997-2012), Millennial (1981-1996), Gen X (1965-1980) and Baby Boomer (1946-1964), of these, 10% were Gen Z, 55% Millennial, 30% Gen X and 5% Baby Boomer.

All our respondent disclosed their employment status and of which 86% were into business, 8% employed, 5% students and unemployed stood at 1%. Only 68% of respondents gave their reason for leaning toward their candidate, of those 66% said they their reason was based on capacity and trust, 6% party affiliation, 16% for change, 9% age and 3% ethnicity.

 

 

By Ikechukwu Orji, Abuja