If you have not heard of Peter Obi, Labour Party and ObiDients in the last months whilst living in Nigeria, you surely must be living in an alternate universe. The storm with which Peter Obi took over the narrative in Nigeria I’m sure, even cronies like Tinubu, Atiku and President Buhari must have panicked at one point. However, the reality in the Northwest must send shockwaves to the ObiDient family.
Our poll in the Northwest relegates Obi to a non-threat status, with just 3% and 4% in Kano and Katsina respectively, you will wonder if the residents of these states have been present in the same Nigeria that the ObiDient pandemonium has ravaged the political, social and media landscape.
On social media, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram et al, the mentioning of Peter Obi is the beginning of traction, young people, in their numbers have clustered around this movement that you would think if the election were held today, Peter Obi will win in a landslide, but hold on, not too fast, the Northwest is having none of these. Our poll below should send shockwaves through your veins if you are an ObiDient.
The Labour Party presidential candidate requires 25% of 24 states, now he’s barely making 10% in Nigeria’s most populous and most turnout voting bloc, one can hope that this is not transferred across the Northeast as this will put a block to Obi’s pathway to Aso Rock. In the northwest, our numbers showed loyalty to Atiku and a proclivity to stick to the party Muhammadu Buhari belongs to, rarely the mentioning of Peter Obi or Labour Party came into our interaction with respondents.
Peter Obi has shown strength amongst Gen Z and Millennials, but on the chart below, these age groups are pouncing in their numbers away from the Labour Party Presidential candidate. It makes me wonder why this is happening, are not younger people the social media warriors from which the slogan “The Social Media President” emanates? Are young people in the Northwest disconnected from the greater Nigeria?
I can’t remember seeing the Labour Party Presidential candidate campaigning in Kano, Katsina, Kebbi or Jigawa; it is as if he has resigned to the slightest possibility of winning in these states – a mistake, a bluff, or a strategy? I fail to see Peter Obi winning the election without making at least 25% in 3 – 5 Northwestern or Northeastern states.
We split our questioning in different layers to broaden what insight we can get in these different categories. A straight vote yes or no to person A, B, C or D is not very reflective in an electoral system where you could win the popular vote count and still lose the election. Our country is a mixture of nations within a nation, so many variables determine what and how one reacts depending on the nations within the country you grew up in, your value system and most of all, religion, and ethnicity.
When it came to religion, Christians, mainly from Kaduna, flocked Obi’s way whilst Muslims did the same, but in the other direction. However, the Muslim vote was split between APC and PDP. In a central system of government, I wonder why people still vote by ethnic, religious lines when evidence on ground has shown that the Southeast, never produced a president, went through a brutal war of some may say extermination, came back from the brink and is still the geopolitical zone with the least amount of poor people in Nigeria.
Why did Peter Obi score just 4% in Katsina? If I knew that, I’m sure the Labour Party Presidential candidate would employ me as their strategist for the North. Northern Nigeria operates on a different set of rules compared to the South; this must be considered. It is not the great ideas you sell that wins them over, but your demeanour, value system against theirs and your religion. The North has always looked at the Igbos in the Southeast as a secessionist group who wants to break up Nigeria, something that is not tolerated in the North. It will take another generation of Nigerians to suppress our primordial inclination.
Looking at the chart above, you can see 67% of APC’s voters openly say that their reason for choosing Bola Tinubu was based on ethnicity, in the capacity category, APC’s Bola Tinubu scored just 21%. The same for Northern Christians, they flocked behind Peter Obi disproportionately.
The chart above by state spell out the cracks in the ObiDient movement in the Northwest, you just cannot make Aso Rock with numbers like that, especially in Nigeria’s most turnout voting bloc with the highest population.
The boat just continues its sinking for Peter Obi, no single category did Peter Obi win in the Northeast, this is nothing but an abysmal performance.
On the gender category, the number of undecided female respondents was remarkably high, but those who said they had a preferred candidate, Labour Party, was not getting a bigger chunk.
The numbers for Peter Obi stayed the same or flat for the Married and not a single Widow went the Labour Party’s way. Either Peter Gregory Obi has concluded that the Northwest is not worth the fight, or he has another pathway to Aso Rock, but as far as our poll shows, 25% in at least 3 states in the Northwest and Northeast is absolutely necessary if the Labour Presidential candidate wants a shot at Aso Rock.
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